Alonso bets 100% faith on Honda amid forgettable FP2 at Monza: The valuation problem of a revival

Monza, 1:45 PM Friday. The FP2 timing board flashes up, and Fernando Alonso's P19 position sits firmly at the bottom end of the field, only ahead of the two Cadillacs and Lance Stroll. The 2.468-second gap to pole - a number that doesn't lie. On a circuit where top speed is king, the Honda-powered AMR25 is showing its most explicit weakness: a lack of pace on the long straights of the Temple of Speed. But in the post-session press conference, Alonso still speaks of '100% faith' in the Honda project. The contrast between the timing board and the Spaniard's words creates a gap that any financial analyst must pause to examine: is this a long-term investment or unfounded optimism?

The context of this story begins with the 2026 season, when Honda officially returns to F1 as a works team with Aston Martin. This is not an impulsive decision. After leaving Red Bull at the end of 2026, Honda spent more than three years restructuring, strengthening its team, and investing in facilities at Sakura, Japan. Many engineers from the successful Red Bull era - where they won four consecutive championships from 2026 to 2026 - have been reassigned to this project. That's a signal that Honda doesn't view this as a casual endeavor.

However, the reality at Monza tells a different story. FP2 data shows Honda has focused on improving the driveability of the engine - an issue that became apparent at Zandvoort and Budapest, where Alonso complained about the engine not responding smoothly when exiting slow corners. Honda's engineers have made changes to combustion characteristics, an incremental solution rather than a revolutionary one. On the dyno, these changes show measurable improvements in power output, but on the actual track, the 1.174-second gap to Williams - a team also using Mercedes engines - suggests the problem runs deeper than just a few combustion parameters.

The crux of this analysis lies in the difference between incremental improvement and transformative change. Honda is playing a long game, but in an environment where development costs are constrained by the cost cap, every dollar spent on fixing the internal combustion engine is a dollar not spent on other components. The question Aston Martin's management must ask: is the focus on driveability improvements slowing down the overall development of the power unit - which needs a full overhaul to compete with Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull?

Alonso, at 43, is no longer a driver of illusions. He acknowledges that Aston Martin's chassis has made measurable progress in low-speed corners since Budapest. At Zandvoort, the car achieved P9 - a positive result amid a difficult season. But chassis improvement only solves half the equation. On a circuit like Monza, where 80% of the lap time is at full throttle, the engine weakness becomes a fatal flaw. Alonso saying he has 'no illusions' about the current situation but still has '100% faith' in Honda over the next 2-3 years shows a clear separation between current assessment and future expectations.

The contrarian angle here is: Alonso's optimism might be the most reliable signal the market has. In F1 history, veteran drivers are usually the most skeptical when the car isn't fast enough. Alonso - who has left teams before due to lack of ambition - choosing to stay and publicly defend the Honda project suggests there may be positive signals the public hasn't seen. But it's also worth remembering that Honda once took 5-6 years to build a competitive power unit in the previous era. Alonso demands success in 2-3 years - a timeline that even the most optimistic must admit is ambitious.

The investment Honda is making in Aston Martin is not just an engine supply contract, but a strategic statement about their ambition to return to a leading position. With reinforced personnel and facilities at Sakura, Honda is laying the foundation not just for the 2026 season - the first year of new engine regulations - but for the next decade. In that context, the P19 performance at Monza is just one data point in a long-term spreadsheet. The real question isn't whether Honda can improve the engine this season, but whether they can build a strong enough foundation to capitalize on the 2026 regulatory revolution.

Alonso once said he doesn't believe in miracles, but believes in process. At Monza, that process is still in its early stages. With Honda confirming that combustion characteristic changes are working well on the dyno, and with the technical team reinforced from the Red Bull era, there's reason to believe improvements will come. But in a sport where results are measured in thousandths of a second, faith cannot replace data. And the data at Monza is saying Aston Martin still has a long way to go.

My conclusion after watching this FP2 session is: look at the upcoming sessions, especially FP3 and qualifying, to see whether driveability improvements translate into better lap times. If the gap to Williams narrows, that's a signal Honda's direction is correct. If not, the question of whether the 'combustion-only' strategy is enough to salvage this season becomes more urgent than ever. In a market where every record starts with a touch of the ball and ends with a number on a spreadsheet, Alonso's 100% faith is an intangible asset - but that asset only has value when priced by on-track results.